Everyone figured law school was a trap.
Piles of debt. Oversaturated job market. AI bots drafting contracts while you clerk for peanuts. The narrative was set: skip the bar exam, code instead.
Then Yale’s Joseph Altonji and Vassar’s Zhengren Zhu drop their study. Boom. J.D. holders? Earnings spike 96% on average. Third place, folks — right after pharmacists at 114% and MDs at 110%.
That’s not chump change. It’s a gut punch to the cynics.
What the Study Actually Found
These economists crunched decades of data — tax records, census stats, the works. They tracked how advanced degrees juice up lifetime earnings compared to just a bachelor’s.
Lawyers crushed it. Not by miles, sure, but solidly in the money club. Think nurses (solid, but lower), engineers (respectable), then boom — J.D. territory.
According to a new study by Yale economics professor Joseph Altonji and Vassar economics professor Zhengren Zhu, on average, how much does a graduate’s earnings increase when they get a J.D.? Hint: The increase in earnings for lawyers places third overall on the list of most financially beneficial degrees after pharmacists (114% increase) and medical doctors (110%).
That’s the trivia hook that led us here. But dig deeper: this isn’t some fluffy survey. It’s rigorous econ work, controlling for selection bias — you know, the smart kids who pick law anyway.
Still, 96%. Write it down.
Why Did We All Buy the ‘Law School Scam’ Story?
Back in 2010, it was apocalypse now. Blogs screamed ‘scam.’ Applications tanked 40%. Grads slinging lattes at Starbucks, $200k loans hanging like guillotines.
Fair point — too many schools churned out bodies for a finite BigLaw pie. Median debt hit $140k. Starting salaries? Stagnant for the bottom half.
But here’s the acerbic twist: the market corrected. Fewer grads, hungrier firms. Now, with AI regs exploding — GDPR fines, antitrust suits against Big Tech — demand’s rebounding. Funny how panic sells clicks.
And that “AI will eat law jobs” trope? Overhyped drivel. Tools like Harvey or Lexis+AI? Great for memo-skimming. But try arguing before SCOTUS with a prompt. Good luck.
My unique callout: this mirrors the 1990s coder bust fears. Everyone said outsourcing to India killed programming premiums. Nope. CS degrees soared 150% ROI by 2010. Lawyers? Your turn. History rhymes, suckers.
The Debt Trap — Still Real, Don’t Kid Yourself
96% sounds sexy. But factor in three years’ opportunity cost. Forgone wages: $150k easy. Plus tuition. Total hit? $400k for the ambitious.
Payback period? 10 years if you’re top-quartile. Eternity if you’re solo in Podunk. The study averages it out — stars and strugglers blended.
Corporate PR spin from law schools will lap this up. “See? Worth it!” they’ll crow. Call BS. Elite schools like Yale Law? Golden tickets. Regional mills? Russian roulette.
Yet, net present value still positive for most. Econ models say so. Just don’t borrow like a sailor on shore leave.
Is a J.D. Worth It in the AI Era?
Hell yes — if you’re strategic. AI floods legal tech, sure. But it creates work: bias audits, IP wars over models, class actions on deepfakes.
Legal AI Beat readers know: we’re drowning in rules. EU AI Act? 500 pages of lawyer bait. US states piling on. Firms need humans to navigate the mess.
Prediction: lawyer premiums climb another 20% by 2030. Regs lag tech — always. You’ll bill $1k/hour explaining why ChatGPT hallucinated your defense.
Short version? AI augments. Doesn’t replace. Grads who code + law? Unstoppable.
But lazy ones? Screwed. Adapt or die.
Bold Move for Millennials and Gen Z?
Parents pushed MBAs. Now pivot. If you’ve got the grit — LSAT 165+, no sob stories — go for it.
Alternatives? Physician assistant (80% bump, less debt). But law’s prestige lingers. Corner office. Power. Arguments that shape nations.
Downsides? Burnout. Billable hours grind souls. Divorce rates through the roof. Worth 96%? You decide.
Skeptics, eat crow. The degree’s no dud. Just pick your poison wisely.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How much does a J.D. increase your earnings on average?
96%, per the Yale-Vassar study — third-highest among advanced degrees.
Is law school still worth the debt in 2024?
For top performers, yes. Averages hide stars vs. flops. Crunch your numbers first.
Will AI replace lawyers and kill the J.D. premium?
Nah. It spawns more reg work. Premiums likely rise.
